IMD updates Monsoon 2017 forecast to 98%, Skymet Weather sticks to 95%

IMD Dir. Gen. KG Ramesh at the press conference

Though it still maintains that Monsoon 2017 would be normal wherein rains vary from 96% to 104% of LPA.

The new system, based on a USA model tweaked for India, could help India raise its farm output by almost 15 percent, by helping farmers tweak the best time to sow, irrigate or apply fertiliser, and, if rains fail, plan state-wide measures.

IMD said rainfall during July and August will likely be 96% and 99% of the long period average, respectively.

It plans to make this as the base for all future forecasts, ranging from short-term weekly forecasts to the trajectory of the four-month- long monsoon. Region-wise, the department said the overall rainfall during June-September period would be 96% of LPA over northwest India, 100% in agriculturally crucial central India, 99% over South peninsular and 96% of LPA over northeast India, all with a model error of ± 8%.

Last year, the IMD had made an initial forecast of "above normal" rainfall, but it belied its prediction and ended the seasons with normal precipitation. During this time, the country, as a whole, receives about 89 cm of rainfall. All areas in the country are possible to get good rainfall, near their normal levels. There are chances of 10-15% of India receiving poor monsoon rainfall.

The Met Department on Tuesday upgraded the South-West monsoon forecast to 98 per cent of the long-term average rainfall from 96 per cent earlier.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below. Rainfall for July stood at 94%, while for August it was 93% of the historical average.

The IMD said that the conditions are becoming favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into the remaining parts of Kerala.

Meanwhile, several parts of the state today witnessed pre-monsoon showers while the state capital received a drizzle in late afternoon. The SWM had set in Kerala on May 30 and it was to hit Karnataka two days after that, but was delayed because the systems were not favourable.

Related News: